Minority St. Louis / Majority New Orleans

A few things have converged in my head that I'd like to share.

1.  Portland may be a great city, all planned out and pretty, but much of that can be blamed on its lack of diversity.  A mostly white, middle class city lacks some of the problems of a segregated city with great disparities in personal income. 

2.  Cities should look for organic home-grown solutions and not try to transplant what works in another city bluntly onto a pre-existing social order.  What works in Portland probably wouldn't work in Atlanta in exactly the same way.

3.  Black Urban Professionals (in contrast to young urban professionals) have very interesting migratory patterns.  They do not move to Portland.

4.  While there are strong black communities in many Rust Belt cities, there is no place particularly known as a mecca of educated black talent.  Atlanta is strong, but there is room for any city to improve in this regard.

There's a map showing 2000 census data on wikipedia,

There is clearly a clustering of majority black communities along the Mississippi River between Memphis and New Orleans.  This clustering is along I-55, which continues north to St. Louis and on to Chicago.

This map is from 2000, and we should be aware that Katrina heavily modified the demographics of New Orleans.  Where did the people go?  The 2010 census will tell us.

Weak research (a lazy glance at wikipedia) shows that St. Louis was 51% black and 43% white in 2000.  By 2007, we were 50% black and 47% white.  Other minorities have not disappeared, the population increased.  Outside of St. Louis City, the suburbs are mostly white.  Any infill at all, which will probably happen, will tip the city majority white.  What effect would that have?

New Orleans was 67% black in 2000.  The hurricane reduced its total population by 40%.  Who stayed?  Most accounts say the white people left.  New Orleans is now slowly regaining its population, but who's moving in?  Again, most people say white people--young and talented.

We can see here on page 7 that the New Orleans Disapora mainly went to Suburban New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Baton Rouge.  Isn't it strange that Memphis is not mentioned.  Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta are the three big Southern cities.  They're kind of obvious choices for shared cultural identity, and perhaps family/personal connections.

This is a map based on the initial exodus and 40,000 internet "I'm safe in *****" posts.

I'm under the impression that Saint Louis University got a lot of Loyola students at the time out of Jesuit brotherhood.
How many permanent relocations did we get?

I-55 is a great conveyor of people from one place to another.  The percent black map sure seems to make it seem like a natural corridor for cultural connections.  Yet, there is that great gulf between Memphis and St. Louis.  A black woman in Cape Girardeau was arrested and sentenced essentially for cutting in line at a grocery store and then disrespecting a police officer (who she said was seriously disrespecting her). 

Yet, Girardeau is French.  So is St. Gen.  New Orleans was French, and so was St. Louis.

New Orleans is known for Mardi Gras.  St. Louis claims to have the second best Mardi Gras.  New Orleans was the jewel of the Louisiana Purchase.  We were the capital of the Louisiana Territory.  They have a Saint Louis Cathedral, and so do we.  There used to be a cultural link. 
Our demographics have shifted.  St. Louis got a lot of Germans. 
So what about our current demographic link? 

It looks like African American out-migration from Missouri before 2000 did largely go down I-55 to Arkansas.  Also telling is the Illinois population, which is high in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas.  I-55 is a great conveyor of people, but they were largely south-bound in the late 90s.

Of the New Great Migration, Atlanta sure seems like a rising star.  With a 2007 metro population of 5,376,285 that's 31.2 % black, which means 1,677,400 African-Americans in one place. 
The metro population of New Orleans is only 1,167,294 by comparison.

As the New Orleans disapora settles, the Detroit disaspora is just underway.  In 2000, Detroit was 81.6% black.   Where do the people go?  Chicago?  Atlanta?


The main university in Jefferson City is Lincoln University, an historically black college.  The closest university to downtown St. Louis is Harris-Stowe University, a desegregated black college merged with a white college.  St. Louis, and Missouri, have the potential to play in this migratory game. 
I'm very curious to explore the how, why, and to what effect.

The 2010 census will also redraw the electoral college.  If the south has indeed gained population, their votes may weigh more heavily.  If, as Paul Krugman's The Conscious of Liberal suggests, the Republican party has largely placed its political chips on southern racism, and the south gets more diverse, then future presidential elections are at stake.  African-Americans vote 90% democrat.  There's no need to worry about Michigan and Illinois, big cities vote democrat too. 
Georgia gained almost 2,000,000 people between 2000 and 2010.  The state is 30% black. 
In the 2008 election it was 1,844,123 votes for Obama and 2,048,759 votes for McCain.  A difference of 200,000 votes isn't so much.  Indications are that Georgia should be a different state by 2012.  With its increase in population, its electoral votes will probably jump up from 15 too.

This is what the Olympics can bring?